Ugrás a tartalomhoz

SOCIAL STATISTICS

Renáta Németh, Dávid Simon

ELTE

Interpretation pitfall I: Ecological fallacy

Interpretation pitfall I: Ecological fallacy

How do you interpret the diagram? (National Health Survey 2003, Hungarian counties

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Ecological fallacy: false inference about characteristics of individuals based solely on aggregate statistics about the groups to which those individuals belong.

(But the following interpretation is valid: „lower level of social participation may contribute to lower level of social cohesion that can influence health status through a psychosocial pathway”).

A similar example about bowling league membership and mortality in the states of the USA in: I. Kawachi (1997): Long Live Community: Social Capital As Public Health, The American Prospect, 8/35

Another example (Thorndike, 1939): The fact that crime is more prevalent in poor areas does not imply that poor people themselves commit these crimes.